Abstract:
This study aims to analyze the development and the influence in short- and long-term of
macroeconomic indicators: inflation, interest rates, economic growth, average grain prices, open
unemployment rate and also the farmer exchange rate on farmers' exchange rates (NTP) in South
Kalimantan Province. The data used is quarterly data from 2010 to 2023. The development of
various macroeconomic indicators was analyzed using descriptive analysis, while their impact
was analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results of the study
show that those macroeconomic indicators are relatively fluctuating in line with the phenomenon
that occurred in that period. Based on estimates with the ARDL(4,3,1,4,2,2) model in the short
term, the NTP in the same quarter of the previous year, the average price of grain at the current
time and at the time of the past six months, the current inflation, inflation of the past 3, 6, and 9
months, as well as the open unemployment rate of the past six months had a significant effect on
? = 5% and 10%. In the long term, it shows that of those macroeconomic indicators do not have
a significant effect on ?=5% on farmer exchange rate in South Kalimantan.
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