Abstract:
Weather forecasting is crucial to planning activities which should be undertaken in, and by,
various earth systems. Forecasting the characteristics of rainfall, including the start and end of
the rainy season, as well as the amount of rainfall to be received in the coming season, is very
important in planning for rainfall-related activities and adapting to rainfall-related hazards.
Through quantitative and qualitative techniques, this study sought to identify the indigenous
indicators used in forecasting rainfall in Mwanga District, Tanzania. Being a semi-arid area and
mostly relying on rain-fed agriculture, rainfall forecasting is crucial in planning agricultural
activities and adapting to rainfall-related hazards. The identified indicators of the start of rainfall
included the sun burning very intensely, the direction of wind, the appearance of clouds in the
sky during the dry season, the budding and flowering of some trees, and the behavior of certain
animals and birds. Regarding the end of the rainy season, the farmers observed the flowering of
some vegetation, the appearance of mushrooms in the land, cold weather, and wind. Besides, the
farmers observed wind, the intensity of the sun, high temperatures, as well as the appearance of
some butterflies and ants to forecast the amount of rainfall that will be received in the coming
season. Although traditional rainfall forecasting is very important, its accuracy has been
decreasing due to increasing climate change and variability. Therefore, it is better to use a
combination of indicators than relying on one or a few indicators to increase the accuracy of
predictions. Further, indigenous knowledge of weather forecasting should be documented to
increase the number of people who can use it effectively. It should also be integrated with
modern technologies to improve its accuracy.
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