International Journal of Agriculture, Environment and Bioresearch

ISSN : 2456-8643

Influence Of Climate Variability On Staple Food Prices In Nigeria: Evidence From Causality Analysis

Authors: Taiwo Ejiola MAFIMISEBI, Felix Olumide ONI and David Olufemi AWOLALA, Nigeria

Abstract:

Climate variability poses a significant and growing threat to food security and economic stability in developing economies, particularly in Nigeria, where agriculture remains predominantly rainfed. While several studies have explored the effects of climate change on agricultural output, fewer have rigorously examined the causal relationships between climatic variables and food price inflation. This study fills that gap by empirically analysing the short- and long-run dynamics between climate change and staple food prices in Nigeria over the period 1991 to 2024. Using annual time-series data on climate variables (rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature), macroeconomic indicators (inflation, exchange rate), and the prices of key food staples (Yam, Rice, Garri, Maize), the study applies the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, and Granger causality analysis. The findings confirm the existence of long-run cointegration between climate factors and food prices. Notably, maximum temperature and rainfall were found to Granger-cause variations in the prices of Garri and Maize, while inflation consistently influenced all food prices in both the short and long run. These results reveal that climate variability is not only a physical challenge but a structural economic risk influencing food price systems. The study highlights the need for climate-responsive economic policies, improved forecasting systems, and market stabilisation mechanisms. It contributes to the literature by establishing empirical causality and offering evidence-based insights for food security and climate adaptation strategies in Nigeria.